A calibrated probability on the call you have to make, and the track record that says whether to trust it.
ORACLE Forecasting-as-a-Service gives you a number (will this deal close this quarter, will this rule land by this date, will this vendor still be standing in a year) instead of a confident paragraph, and it ships that number with its own report card, the running calibration score that tells you how well this forecaster has actually done on questions that already resolved. Not a pundit's vibe, a probability you can audit.
Book a forecasting pilot See a calibration receipt
THE PROBLEM
You make calls under uncertainty all the time, and the thing you usually get to help you is a memo with a confidence adjective in it (likely, probably, we are fairly sure), which is exactly the kind of language that feels informative and tells you almost nothing. The fashionable upgrade, pointing an AI at the question, mostly makes the problem worse, because now the confident paragraph arrives faster and sounds even more fluent, and still nobody is keeping score. And there is a quieter finding underneath all of this, the one this product is built on, that trained superforecasters beat intelligence analysts with access to classified information by roughly thirty percent. The edge was never secret data. The edge was calibration and the discipline of scoring every forecast against what actually happened, which is precisely the thing almost no forecast you are handed today actually carries.
HOW IT WORKS
ORACLE does three things, in a loop, and the third one is the point. First, for each question you care about, it estimates a calibrated probability rather than a yes or a no. Second, it writes that forecast down and tracks it to the real-world outcome when the question resolves. Third, it scores itself on the questions that have resolved (a Brier score, the standard measure of how well a probability forecaster is calibrated) and hands you that track record alongside the next number, so you are never asked to trust a probability in a vacuum. If the calibration behind a given forecast is thin, or if the score has been drifting, you are told that, plainly, instead of getting the same authoritative tone over a weaker footing. Your questions stay yours, your decisions stay yours, we put a scoreable number on them and we keep the scoreboard honest.
WHAT YOU GET (the brief with its receipt)
For each question you bring: - a calibrated probability, not a narrative, and not a bare point estimate dressed up as certainty, - the calibration receipt, the forecaster's running Brier score and accuracy on questions that have already resolved, so you can see the track record before you trust the number, - a drift flag when the calibration is thin or moving, surfaced rather than hidden, - a short brief synthesizing the signals behind the number (the cross-market and news read the probability rests on), so the estimate is legible, not a black box.
A forecast you can put a track record next to, not a take you have to take on faith.
WHO IT'S FOR
Operators and analysts who make repeated, consequential calls under uncertainty, first, corp-dev and strategy teams, risk and treasury functions, PMs and investors sizing bets, and research or intelligence desks that have to put a number on an outcome. Then founders and boards who want a second, calibration-backed probability on a decision before they commit. If being wrong about a future event costs you something, this is for you. If you want a single deterministic answer to an inherently uncertain question, this is not, what you get here is a probability with a track record, not a crystal ball.
PRICING (the ladder)
We price the ladder, not a single number, and every number below is a hypothesis we validate with you, not a commitment. - Pilot, a fixed-price paid proof on your own set of decision questions. You get the calibrated probabilities now and, as the questions resolve, the scored calibration receipt, before you commit to anything ongoing. - Value-metered, a recurring brief priced per brief or per tracked question, once the pilot's track record is proven. Your decisions keep flowing, each consequential one gets a calibrated, resolution-tracked probability. - Platform, license the calibration-tracked forecasting engine into your own decision or intelligence stack, your questions in, scored probabilities out.
IP is licensed, never assigned. The forecaster and its scoreboard stay ours, the proof is yours. Any step that takes your money is gated and confirmed before it runs, nothing charges silently.
THE PROOF (dogfood)
We run this discipline on ourselves before we sell it. AYA already forecasts, tracks, and scores its own predictions through the same estimate then resolve then recalibrate loop this product is built on, and every capability AYA ships terminates as a verification receipt, the same shape of scored proof this product hands you. The first calibration set we intend to publish is AYA's own, we point the forecaster at our own ninety-day roadmap (which products actually ship, which forcing-function dates actually land) and let the ledger keep score in public. If we are going to sell you a track record, the honest move is to build ours where you can see it.
HONEST NOTE
Two things are true and worth saying plainly. First, nothing new was coded for this product, the whole forecasting stack (the probability estimate, the resolution tracking, the calibration scoring, and the brief that ties them together) already exists in AYA and is reused as-is, so what is new here is the offer and the manifest, not the machine. Second, and this is the real caveat, the calibration ledger has not yet been run against a live outside question set with real resolutions, which means the track record we would show a first buyer is not yet populated from their world (our roadmap marks this line calibration-ledger wiring, amber, for exactly this reason). That live run, a batch of your questions and a window to let them resolve, is the natural first test, and it is a matter of getting your questions and letting time pass, not of missing code. Everything above the pricing is structurally built and the reused patterns are verified on disk, nothing here has been billed, published, or run in production, no calibration or Brier number is claimed yet, and the pricing figures are hypotheses we intend to test with a first pilot partner.
*This page is a specification. The capability it describes is not built yet, and nothing here is a claim that it runs today.*